River dating rotterdam
The concept of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) has been successfully applied on a global scale to analyse climate change and the effects of emission mitigation strategies (e.g. In our study we apply the concept of IAMs for impact assessment and adaptation analysis in combination with transient scenarios and social response on a regional to local scale.The objectives of the study presented here were to implement the method of exploring adaptation pathways in a case study and to evaluate the implementation and use of the results.The end point is therefore not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned when the future unfolds (Yohe ), and by the policy responses to events.
These are points at which the magnitude of change is such that the current management strategy can no longer meet its objectives. Exploratory modelling uses computational experiments to explore uncertainties in both context and model (Bankes ), for example, used exploratory modelling for creating a large ensemble of plausible future scenarios to find robust strategies for dealing with climate change. () propose a conceptual framework (a hybrid of dynamic and static modelling) for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments.
The results show, among others, that climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking decisions in water management.
Water management is essential for living in river deltas.
This paper presents the first application of the method using a hypothetical case study.
The case study shows how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways.
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Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment.